Possible scenario
Technical Deal Emerges
25% Chance
Even without a ceasefire, Turkey, the United States and the UN could push a narrower arrangement focused on navigation notices, insurance and port inspection protocols. This would not end attacks across the wider war but could lower the risk premium on grain cargoes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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