Corridor Holds Without Truce

The most likely path is that Ukraine continues exporting through its unilateral Black Sea corridor despite no formal ceasefire. Russia avoids a full blockade because Ukraine’s drone and missile campaign has reduced the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s room for action, but insurance costs and episodic port disruptions remain elevated.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.