Possible scenario
Oil Routes Disrupted
20% Chance
Iran may respond asymmetrically at sea rather than through direct attacks on U.S. carriers. The highest-impact risk is interference with the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, or tanker routes near Fujairah and Ras Tanura.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.1%
- Consumer Services -3.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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