Possible scenario
Expanded Strike Campaign
28% Chance
The enlarged carrier posture may be preparation for another round of U.S. or joint U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iranian missile, drone, radar, and IRGC naval assets. This scenario becomes more likely if Iran-backed forces kill U.S. personnel or strike Gulf infrastructure again.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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