Possible scenario
Deterrent Standoff Holds
38% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that the additional U.S. carrier presence functions as deterrence rather than a prelude to immediate large-scale strikes. Iran, Israel, and U.S. forces continue high-alert operations, but all sides avoid actions that would force a major widening of the war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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