Possible scenario
Sustained Drone Pressure
28% Chance
Ukraine continues using long-range drones to impose costs on Russian air travel, air defenses, and logistics nodes far from the front. This is plausible given the recent pattern of 400-plus-drone raids and repeated airport closures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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