Possible scenario
Russian Retaliatory Escalation
20% Chance
The Kremlin responds to repeated deep strikes by increasing missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, power assets, or transport infrastructure. This would be a more material escalation than airport disruption alone, but still below a direct NATO-Russia confrontation in the base case.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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