Possible scenario
Contained Aviation Disruption
42% Chance
Russian air defenses and airport authorities restore most operations within a day, treating the raid as another severe but manageable disruption. Ukraine demonstrates reach, but the immediate market read-through remains limited because no major energy or military command asset is confirmed destroyed.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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