Possible scenario
Fuel Stress Returns
20% Chance
The secretary's denial proves temporary as high crude costs and reduced Russian crude availability continue to pressure private refiners. Shortages remain localized, but the market begins pricing a higher risk of government-led margin controls or emergency supply measures.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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