Possible scenario
Corridor Endures
40% Chance
Ukraine’s Black Sea export corridor continues operating despite repeated Russian strikes, helped by naval drones, coastal surveillance, and dispersed loading schedules. Export volumes remain below prewar capacity, but Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi avoid a prolonged shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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