Possible scenario
Regional Energy Escalation
30% Chance
Iran widens the battlefield beyond Israel and Iraq by targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, shipping, and U.S. regional logistics. The central risk is not immediate regime war but disruption to oil supply and insurance flows through the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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