Possible scenario
Mediated De-Escalation
21% Chance
Regional governments conclude that open U.S.-Iran war would endanger Gulf infrastructure and press both capitals toward a temporary pause. Iran preserves deterrent rhetoric while Washington accepts a short tactical de-escalation if U.S. casualties remain limited.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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