Possible scenario
Contained Direct Exchange
37% Chance
Iran follows through with direct but calibrated attacks on U.S. military assets, while Washington responds without attempting regime-ending strikes. Both sides signal resolve but avoid steps that would force a full-scale regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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