Possible scenario
Fed Pauses Again
25% Chance
A pause remains plausible because the latest Core PCE reading undershot forecasts and the jobs report was not strong enough to force immediate action. If incoming inflation and labor data soften further, the Fed could decide that the September hike was sufficient for now.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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