Possible scenario
December Hike Base Case
50% Chance
Citigroup's call aligns with the September hike, the Fed minutes showing a year-end hike expectation, and officials' recent guidance. Markets increasingly price a standard 25 bp December move, especially if inflation remains above the Fed's comfort zone despite the September Core PCE undershoot.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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