Possible scenario
Wider Sabotage Pattern
18% Chance
The Bulgaria incident is followed by similar attacks or attempted arson against communications assets elsewhere in Europe. This reinforces NATO warnings that Russian sabotage is becoming regularized, causing a clearer but still contained geopolitical risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
- Telecommunications -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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