Possible scenario
Ongoing Houthi Disruption
30% Chance
The Houthis continue attacks against Saudi airports, energy sites, and border cities, but without triggering a formal US or Saudi campaign beyond defensive measures. This keeps travel risk elevated and adds a near-term premium to crude prices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.