Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
15% Chance
Oman, the UN, and possibly US envoys revive back-channel contacts to prevent a wider Saudi-Iran proxy escalation. The Houthis pause high-profile launches in exchange for reduced Saudi retaliation and humanitarian or port-related concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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