Possible scenario
Contained Alert
45% Chance
The most likely near-term path is that Washington's Level 3 advisory remains a precaution rather than a signal of imminent evacuation. Saudi air defenses and airport restrictions reduce immediate risk while the Houthis continue to threaten further attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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