Possible scenario
US Pressure Curbs
25% Chance
The Trump administration uses weapons deliveries and intelligence support to push Kyiv away from attacks that could lift global fuel prices. Ukraine may accept a partial pause if Washington offers air-defense guarantees or alternative target packages.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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