Possible scenario
Sustained Refinery Campaign
40% Chance
Kyiv continues targeting Russian refining capacity despite U.S. pressure, arguing that fuel infrastructure directly supports Moscow's war effort. The most likely result is recurring outages and repair delays rather than an immediate nationwide Russian fuel crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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