Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
22% Chance
Moscow responds to refinery attacks with larger strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, trying to raise the cost of Kyiv's campaign before winter. The most plausible escalation remains inside Ukraine, though cyber and logistics pressure on NATO-adjacent routes is a lower-probability risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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