Possible scenario
Legal Constraints Dominate
20% Chance
The debate could shift away from popularity and toward whether the executive branch has legal authority to issue the checks. If institutional actors conclude Congress is required, the plan becomes harder to execute quickly.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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