Possible scenario
Campaign Doubles Down
25% Chance
Trump may treat the bad polling as evidence that the proposal needs a stronger sales pitch rather than retreat. This keeps fiscal and legal uncertainty in the headlines, especially because he has already suggested Congress may be unnecessary.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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