Possible scenario
Limited Strike Campaign
27% Chance
The carrier buildup becomes the enabling force for limited U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian missile, drone, air-defense, or nuclear-linked facilities. Washington frames the operation as bounded, but Iran is likely to retaliate indirectly through regional partners.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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