Deterrence Holds

The most likely near-term outcome is that Washington uses the additional carrier and 10,000 personnel to deter Iran, protect U.S. bases, and reassure Israel and Gulf partners without immediately launching a new strike package. Iran and its proxies probe the perimeter but avoid actions that would guarantee a larger U.S. response.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.