Possible scenario
Probe Clears Primes
22% Chance
A plausible outcome is that the investigation finds the diverted goods were low-sensitivity or dual-use components, with no compromise of classified F-35 systems. Prime contractors and the U.S.-Australia defense relationship would receive a modest relief reaction.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Tickers
- LMT+1.2%
- NOC+0.7%
- RTX+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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