Contained Compliance Breach

The most likely outcome is that investigators identify weak end-use checks by one or more Australian subcontractors, but no proof that core F-35 stealth technology reached the Chinese military. Washington and Canberra respond with audits, temporary license reviews, and tighter documentation rather than a major break in defense cooperation.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.