Possible scenario
China Diversion Confirmed
25% Chance
Investigators uncover evidence that Hong Kong intermediaries deliberately diverted controlled components toward mainland Chinese entities. This would push the case from routine compliance failure into a sharper U.S.-China technology-security dispute, though still concentrated in aerospace and export-control sectors.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -2.2%
- Technology -0.7%
Tickers
- LMT-2.1%
- NOC-1.1%
- RTX-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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