Possible scenario
Limited IRGC Attack
30% Chance
One or more ships ignore or cannot meet the order to move, and IRGC units carry out a limited attack using drones, mines, or anti-ship missiles. This would fit the recent pattern of tanker strikes while still stopping short of a declared war with the United States or UAE.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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