Possible scenario
Coercive Diversion Holds
38% Chance
The six targeted vessels comply with the IRGC demand or are escorted into Dubai-area waters, avoiding an immediate strike. This is the most likely path because shipowners and insurers have strong incentives to preserve crews and hulls while governments assess the threat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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