Possible scenario
Coalition Military Response
20% Chance
Washington and Abu Dhabi respond to the warning by organizing escorts, surveillance flights, and possibly limited defensive operations around the threatened ships. The key uncertainty is whether Iran backs down or fires on coalition assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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