Possible scenario
Testing Dispute Escalates
20% Chance
The secret channel breaks down and the administration moves the dispute into a public pressure campaign. This is less likely than managed diplomacy, but it remains credible given Trump’s prior vow to resume U.S. nuclear testing and the hardened U.S. accusations earlier in 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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