Possible scenario
Quiet Verification Progress
38% Chance
Washington and Beijing use the secret channel to prevent the testing dispute from becoming a public crisis. The most likely constructive outcome is a narrow technical process focused on seismic data, site notifications, and crisis communications rather than a broad arms-control treaty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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