Possible scenario
Oil-Site Drone Incident
15% Chance
Militia hardliners or splinter groups retaliate against the seizure campaign by targeting energy infrastructure, echoing the March 2026 drone incident at Majnoon. The most likely damage is limited, but even a short disruption would focus markets on Iraq’s southern export corridor.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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