Possible scenario
Militia Pushback
30% Chance
Iran-aligned factions resist the loss of autonomous drone capacity and use parliament, street pressure, and limited intimidation to slow the campaign. Baghdad keeps the unit alive but avoids a broad crackdown that could fracture the governing coalition.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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