Possible scenario
Managed Drone Surrender
45% Chance
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani uses the new unit under the Joint Operations Command to inventory and seize militia drones without forcing a direct confrontation. The Popular Mobilization Forces leadership negotiates a staged handover to preserve political influence while avoiding a security breakdown after the U.S. exit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- TTE+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.