Possible scenario
Broader Security Sweep
25% Chance
Authorities conclude the Fairford plot may have had logistical support beyond the five arrested men. Raids and elevated base security continue, causing localized disruption around U.S. military sites and modest risk-off trading.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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