Possible scenario
Border Arrests Accelerate
30% Chance
A smaller but visible portion of the caravan reaches northern Mexico and attempts to cross into Texas or Arizona. DHS responds with arrests, expedited removal, and publicized deportation flights to reinforce the Trump administration's deterrence campaign.
Tickers
- GEO+1.9%
- CXW+1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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