Possible scenario
House Arrest Contested
20% Chance
Civil society groups, opposition politicians or prosecutors press for greater scrutiny of the house-arrest grant. The legal dispute shifts from the fine to the validity and scope of the order itself, increasing the chance that Najib remains jailed longer.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.