Possible scenario
Red Sea Contained
15% Chance
The Red Sea situation remains tense but manageable without immediately recalling the carrier. This would suggest that U.S., European, and regional naval assets can contain Houthi disruption at a level markets have already priced in.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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