Possible scenario
Middle East Flexibility
25% Chance
The carrier may remain positioned so U.S. Central Command can call it back if Houthi pressure on shipping worsens. This would reflect hedging after recent Red Sea instability, not necessarily a decision to resume combat operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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