Possible scenario
Policy Backlash Intensifies
30% Chance
The scale of the export jump draws scrutiny from Washington and Brussels because it suggests China is building or re-exporting AI infrastructure faster than expected. Policy risk rises around advanced accelerators, AI server components, customs classifications and possible tariff treatment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Industrials -0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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