Possible scenario
Ultimatum Stalls Talks
30% Chance
Trump's demand hardens into a public ultimatum, but Kyiv and Moscow both calculate that accepting early terms would be politically costly. The result is a visible breakdown in diplomacy and renewed uncertainty over U.S. military deliveries.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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