Possible scenario
Negotiated Framework Emerges
35% Chance
The most likely constructive path is that Trump uses the $350 billion aid figure to force an accelerated negotiating track rather than immediately abandon Kyiv. Ukraine resists formal territorial concessions, while the U.S. pushes a cease-fire-first framework with security guarantees deferred to later talks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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