Possible scenario
Conditional Aid Continues
20% Chance
Trump keeps military support flowing but changes its structure, using loans, escrowed assets, and delivery conditions to show taxpayers a harder bargain. This path avoids an abrupt rupture with Kyiv while maintaining leverage over Zelenskyy's negotiating position.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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