Possible scenario
Case-By-Case Freezes
35% Chance
Tether treats the three-hour THORChain vault freeze as an operational test rather than a permanent policy shift. The most likely outcome is a clearer case-by-case framework for freezes tied to stolen funds, sanctions screening, or law-enforcement requests.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.