Possible scenario
Narrow Prisoner Deal
45% Chance
The most likely path is a narrowly tailored humanitarian swap that avoids broad sanctions reversal. Trump backs limited relief such as specific licenses, small asset unfreezings, or travel-related waivers while keeping core banking, energy, and defense sanctions in place.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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