Possible scenario
Backlash Blocks Relief
20% Chance
Congressional Republicans, Democrats, Ukraine hawks, and European allies push back against any sanctions-for-prisoners bargain. The administration either narrows the offer sharply or pauses relief to avoid a domestic and allied rupture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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