Possible scenario
Fed Clash Escalates
22% Chance
The appointment becomes part of a broader administration campaign against Fed independence after Trump's prior calls to remove Powell. Investors focus less on Shelton herself and more on whether Treasury is aligning with White House pressure on the central bank.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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